Green hydrogen: Short-term scarcity, long-term uncertainty

Green hydrogen would likely supply less than 1% of total energy globally by 2035, while the European Union might hit the 1% mark a little earlier by about 2030. In particular, the EU's 2030 plan to supply 10 million tons of green hydrogen with domestic capacity will be out of reach, unless policy makers can foster growth that is unprecedented for energy technologies. By 2040, a breakthrough to higher green hydrogen shares is more likely, but large uncertainties prevail, which increase today's investment risks. However, history shows that emergency-like policy measures could yield substantially higher growth rates, expediting the breakthrough and increasing the likelihood of future hydrogen availability.

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